As of July 11, Russia harvested 2.7mha producing 12.2mmt of grain with an average yield of 4.39mt/ha.
At the same point last year, farmers harvested 4.0mha collecting 16.8mmt of grain with an average yield of 4.23mt/ha.
Harvest is running about a week behind last year in terms of hectares cut, but if you ignore the different start date, the harvest is on track and yield and output are both slightly ahead of last year.
I have written a brief update on the Russian-Ukraine harvest (email firstname.lastname@example.org for a free copy), in it I said it will be a brave analyst who calls H17 more than H16 and that no one seems prepared to break ranks and go public with a big number.
The next day the USDA went public with a big number and increased their latest Russian wheat forecast by a whopping 3.0mmt to 72mmt, the same as last year’s record crop.
While their forecast doesn’t exceed last year’s crop, I’m starting to think it is only a matter of days before someone does.
For the record, back in early June, we pegged Russian wheat at 70.1mmt, this week we increased that 1.0mmt on the back of finalised planting numbers.
In about ten days we will start touring Russia and Ukraine again with a view to adjusting our forecast, be sure to sign up to access the full results.